{
  "source_sha256": "88a64e3bacef4aba63da6ed7c9ea243a2e69b0b12e6d88d3ae01452f5b49cdc9",
  "evaluation_status": "Retrospective: 2023-25 outcomes appeared in a prior audit. Config is frozen before this comparison; not a fresh unseen holdout.",
  "selected_on_validation": {
    "total_bandwidth": 8,
    "blend": 1,
    "selection_score": 0.4787688927769369,
    "metrics": {
      "nearby": 0.4988566687023407,
      "moneyline": 0.43241377156924476,
      "key_crossings": 0.4983403127507573
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  },
  "best_total_candidate": {
    "total_bandwidth": 8,
    "blend": 1,
    "selection_score": 0.4787688927769369,
    "metrics": {
      "nearby": 0.4988566687023407,
      "moneyline": 0.43241377156924476,
      "key_crossings": 0.4983403127507573
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  },
  "evaluation_games": 855,
  "fit_games": 2173,
  "comparison": {
    "nearby": {
      "games": 855,
      "baseline_brier": 0.496803538505594,
      "total_brier": 0.49675604568199,
      "difference": -4.749282360404778e-05,
      "paired_game_bootstrap_95pct": [
        -0.00015201053249848823,
        5.694152673323093e-05
      ]
    },
    "moneyline": {
      "games": 855,
      "baseline_brier": 0.42142722263741306,
      "total_brier": 0.4214118672551838,
      "difference": -1.5355382229242853e-05,
      "paired_game_bootstrap_95pct": [
        -0.00016626427445266725,
        0.00013670942726815445
      ]
    },
    "key_crossings": {
      "games": 800,
      "baseline_brier": 0.5065361797012735,
      "total_brier": 0.5065195854066294,
      "difference": -1.6594294644003417e-05,
      "paired_game_bootstrap_95pct": [
        -0.00013123055953962378,
        9.800290453116335e-05
      ]
    }
  },
  "baseline_weighted_score": 0.4771104361038435,
  "total_weighted_score": 0.47708185407133996,
  "passes_predefined_deployment_rule": false,
  "deployment_rule": "Lower weighted score, no worsening primary endpoint, and a paired 95% game-bootstrap improvement on at least one primary endpoint. Group results are diagnostic and never used to retune.",
  "groups": [
    {
      "group": "total <40",
      "games": 130,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.4775098624103056,
      "total_selection_score": 0.47733709387833434,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": -0.00019320845898274908,
        "moneyline": -0.00014874074309252872,
        "key_crossings": -0.00016954308483429502
      }
    },
    {
      "group": "total 40 to <47",
      "games": 492,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.47624078398463376,
      "total_selection_score": 0.47620446003307915,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": -5.8061659581243564e-05,
        "moneyline": -6.6560015091096e-05,
        "key_crossings": 2.2895722684034547e-05
      }
    },
    {
      "group": "total >=47",
      "games": 233,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.4787264956461642,
      "total_selection_score": 0.478794804173881,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": 5.6124772533340616e-05,
        "moneyline": 0.0001671887219778769,
        "key_crossings": -1.4326659633369873e-05
      }
    },
    {
      "group": "2023",
      "games": 285,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.48134613384938285,
      "total_selection_score": 0.4813398401512031,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": -2.1730548177873774e-05,
        "moneyline": 4.7905124453963936e-05,
        "key_crossings": -3.9910054149017283e-05
      }
    },
    {
      "group": "2024",
      "games": 285,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.4723951784155691,
      "total_selection_score": 0.4724004778628714,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": 1.1194223176639104e-05,
        "moneyline": -3.7618532422105696e-05,
        "key_crossings": 4.035772586100378e-05
      }
    },
    {
      "group": "2025",
      "games": 285,
      "baseline_selection_score": 0.47756103655721094,
      "total_selection_score": 0.4774754182758151,
      "metric_differences": {
        "nearby": -0.00013194214581090867,
        "moneyline": -5.63527387195868e-05,
        "key_crossings": -5.3118671518687934e-05
      }
    }
  ],
  "effective_local_sample_quantiles": [
    51.998894936937944,
    1412.5794118689348,
    1711.2522526902392
  ],
  "diagnostic_prices": [
    {
      "main_spread": -3.5,
      "original_price": -110,
      "alternate_spread": -2.5,
      "game_total": 37,
      "candidate_price": -158.15651833828886
    },
    {
      "main_spread": -3.5,
      "original_price": -110,
      "alternate_spread": -2.5,
      "game_total": 44,
      "candidate_price": -159.57616306942248
    },
    {
      "main_spread": -3.5,
      "original_price": -110,
      "alternate_spread": -2.5,
      "game_total": 54,
      "candidate_price": -161.18924063195757
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No timestamped alternate quotes: no quote-accuracy or ROI backtest.",
    "Historical closing totals, not independently generated personal projections.",
    "Previously seen 2023-25 outcomes: retrospective corroboration only.",
    "Game bootstrap does not model cross-game team and season dependence.",
    "Total is an uncertain market forecast; rule/scoring changes may invalidate historical relationships."
  ]
}